On a day when the province said it wants to develop 3,000 megawatts of new wind power, the Independent Electricity Market Operator, or IMO, predicted that Ontario will need to build or overhaul a whopping 11,600 megawatts of generating capacity in the next decade. That's more than one-third of existing capacity.
The IMO noted only 750 megawatts is currently under construction.
Energy Minister Dwight Duncan said the IMO was right to point out that the province has "big problems" but says they're not insurmountable.
"There are big decisions for this government and this legislature to take to ensure that we have an adequate and reliable source of electricity going forward," he said, adding that he will have more to say later this month on the Pickering A refurbishment project.
An alternative to building generators is to curb demand. But the IMO isn't betting on that. In fact, it predicts demand will grow in Ontario by 0.9 per cent each year over the next decade.
Nor is the market operator optimistic about the prospects of new generation coming on stream in a hurry. It notes that a string of projects to build new power plants have been on the drawing boards for years. The IMO no longer includes any proposed projects in its plans unless they are under construction.
The biggest hole in Ontario's supply is the Liberal government's plan to shut down all coal-burning generators in Ontario by 2007 — starting with Lakeview in 2005.
That wipes out about 7,500 megawatts of generating capacity, or one-quarter of the province's theoretical total capacity.
Tom Adams, executive director of Energy Probe, said even the gloomy IMO report could be too optimistic.
It predicts a second refurbished unit at the Pickering A nuclear station will return to service in 2005. That's not a sure thing given the project's troubled history, Adams said.
Duncan bristled when he learned that OPG had assured the IMO that Pickering A will be on line by late 2005.
"I am the sole shareholder and I and this government will make those determinations," he said.
Adams questioned the assumption that three units of the Pickering B nuclear station will last until 2013 before their pressure tubes must be replaced. The pressure tubes, in the reactor core, contain the uranium fuel and heavy water that plays a part in the nuclear reaction and carries heat to the steam generating units.
According to some estimates, the pressure tubes may have to be replaced years earlier than 2013, Adams said.
"There's a major risk on that score."
The GTA's position is especially precarious because of the impending loss of the Lakeview generating station. There are transmission bottlenecks limiting the flow of power into the GTA, especially the western portions. When Lakeview is shut down, a source of local power disappears.
Hydro One has several projects on the go to augment transmission lines into Toronto, but the IMO says more is needed. One possibility is a transmission line running under Lake Ontario connecting downtown Toronto with the Niagara region, but that has not yet been approved.
"We are confident there will not be any supply interruptions in the GTA by 2005, when they close down Lakeview," Duncan said.
Duncan said recently that the province wants to build about 3,000 megawatts worth of wind power on crown lands or almost as much power as that produced at the Darlington nuclear plant with four reactors.
Requests for proposals for constructing windmills, totalling 300 megawatts, should go out in about two weeks.
Farmers should consider their land for windmills, Duncan said.
"You can continue to farm, depending on the windmills ... and some farms actually make more money having windmills on them than they do with cash crops," he said.
The problem with windmills is that they run only when the wind blows, and may not be available on days when the need is greatest — such as a hot, steamy day in July.
Planners estimate windmills will produce power 25 per cent of the time or less.
Natural Resources Minister David Ramsay said successful candidates to produce wind power will be allowed to build their windmills on crown land with a 25-year lease.