Local study to look at how e-trucks might supply future electricity

EV Adoption Limits highlight that electric vehicles alone cannot meet emissions targets; life cycle assessment, carbon budgets, clean grids, public transit, and battery materials constraints demand broader decarbonization strategies, city redesign, and active travel.

Key Points

EV Adoption Limits show EVs alone cannot hit climate targets; modal shift, clean grids, and travel demand are essential.

✅ 350M EVs by 2050 still miss 2 C goals without major mode shift

✅ Grid demand rises 41%, requiring clean power and smart charging

✅ Battery materials constraints need recycling, supply diversification

Today there are more than seven million electric vehicles (EVs) in operation around the world, compared with only about 20,000 a decade ago. It’s a massive change – but according to a group of researchers at the University of Toronto’s Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering, it won’t be nearly enough to address the global climate crisis. 

“A lot of people think that a large-scale shift to EVs will mostly solve our climate problems in the passenger vehicle sector,” says Alexandre Milovanoff, a PhD student and lead author of a new paper published in Nature Climate Change. 

“I think a better way to look at it is this: EVs are necessary, but on their own, they are not sufficient.” 

Around the world, many governments are already going all-in on EVs. In Norway, for example, where EVs already account for half of new vehicle sales, the government has said it plans to eliminate sales of new internal combustion vehicles by 2025. The Netherlands aims to follow suit by 2030, with France and Canada's EV goals aiming to follow by 2040. Just last week, California announced plans to ban sales of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035.

Milovanoff and his supervisors in the department of civil and mineral engineering – Assistant Professor Daniel Posen and Professor Heather MacLean – are experts in life cycle assessment, which involves modelling the impacts of technological changes across a range of environmental factors. 

They decided to run a detailed analysis of what a large-scale shift to EVs would mean in terms of emissions and related impacts. As a test market, they chose the United States, which is second only to China in terms of passenger vehicle sales. 

“We picked the U.S. because they have large, heavy vehicles, as well as high vehicle ownership per capita and high rate of travel per capita,” says Milovanoff. “There is also lots of high-quality data available, so we felt it would give us the clearest answers.” 

The team built computer models to estimate how many electric vehicles would be needed to keep the increase in global average temperatures to less than 2 C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, a target often cited by climate researchers. 

“We came up with a novel method to convert this target into a carbon budget for U.S. passenger vehicles, and then determined how many EVs would be needed to stay within that budget,” says Posen. “It turns out to be a lot.” 

Based on the scenarios modelled by the team, the U.S. would need to have about 350 million EVs on the road by 2050 in order to meet the target emissions reductions. That works out to about 90 per cent of the total vehicles estimated to be in operation at that time. 

“To put that in perspective, right now the total proportion of EVs on the road in the U.S. is about 0.3 per cent,” says Milovanoff. 

“It’s true that sales are growing fast, but even the most optimistic projections of an electric-car revolution suggest that by 2050, the U.S. fleet will only be at about 50 per cent EVs.” 

The team says that, in addition to the barriers of consumer preferences for EV deployment, there are technological barriers such as the strain that EVs would place on the country’s electricity infrastructure, though proper grid management can ease integration. 

According to the paper, a fleet of 350 million EVs would increase annual electricity demand by 1,730 terawatt hours, or about 41 per cent of current levels. This would require massive investment in infrastructure and new power plants, some of which would almost certainly run on fossil fuels in some regions. 

The shift could also impact what’s known as the demand curve – the way that demand for electricity rises and falls at different times of day – which would make managing the national electrical grid more complex, though vehicle-to-grid strategies could help smooth peaks. Finally, there are technical challenges stemming from the supply of critical materials for batteries, including lithium, cobalt and manganese. 

The team concludes that getting to 90 per cent EV ownership by 2050 is an unrealistic scenario. Instead, what they recommend is a mix of policies, rather than relying solely on a 2035 EV sales mandate as a singular lever, including many designed to shift people out of personal passenger vehicles in favour of other modes of transportation. 

These could include massive investment in public transit – subways, commuter trains, buses – as well as the redesign of cities to allow for more trips to be taken via active modes such as bicycles or on foot. They could also include strategies such as telecommuting, a shift already spotlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“EVs really do reduce emissions, which are linked to fewer asthma-related ER visits in local studies, but they don’t get us out of having to do the things we already know we need to do,” says MacLean. “We need to rethink our behaviours, the design of our cities, and even aspects of our culture. Everybody has to take responsibility for this.” 

The research received support from the Hatch Graduate Scholarship for Sustainable Energy Research and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

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Whooping crane migration near wind turbines shows strong avoidance of stopover habitat within 5 km, reshaping Great Plains siting decisions, reducing collision risk, and altering routes across croplands, grasslands, and wetlands.

Key Points

It examines cranes avoiding stopovers within 5 km of turbines, reshaping habitat use and routing across the Great Plains.

✅ Cranes 20x likelier to rest >5 km from turbines.

✅ About 5% of high-quality stopover habitat is impacted.

✅ Findings guide wind farm siting across Great Plains wetlands.

As gatherings to observe whooping cranes join the ranks of online-only events this year, a new study offers insight into how the endangered bird is faring on a landscape increasingly dotted with wind turbines across regions. The paper, published this week in Ecological Applications, reports that whooping cranes migrating through the U.S. Great Plains avoid “rest stop” sites that are within 5 km of wind-energy infrastructure.

Avoidance of wind turbines can decrease collision mortality for birds, but can also make it more difficult and time-consuming for migrating flocks to find safe and suitable rest and refueling locations. The study’s insights into migratory behavior could improve future siting decisions as wind energy infrastructure continues to expand, despite pandemic-related investment risks for developers.

“In the past, federal agencies had thought of impacts related to wind energy primarily associated with collision risks,” said Aaron Pearse, the paper’s first author and a research wildlife biologist for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown, N.D. “I think this research changes that paradigm to a greater focus on potential impacts to important migration habitats.”

Some policymakers have also rejected false health claims about wind turbines and cancer in public debate, underscoring the need for evidence-based decisions.

The study tracked whooping cranes migrating across the Great Plains, a region that encompasses a mosaic of croplands, grasslands and wetlands. The region has seen a rapid proliferation of wind energy infrastructure in recent years: in 2010, there were 2,215 wind towers within the whooping crane migration corridor that the study focused on; by 2016, when the study ended, there were 7,622 wind towers within the same area.

Pearse and his colleagues found that whooping cranes migrating across the study area in 2010 and 2016 were 20 times more likely to select “rest stop” locations at least 5 km away from wind turbines than those closer to turbines, a pattern with implications for developers as solar incentive changes reshape wind market dynamics according to industry analyses.

The authors estimated that 5% of high-quality stopover habitat in the study area was affected by presence of wind towers. Siting wind infrastructure outside of whooping cranes’ migration corridor would reduce the risk of further habitat loss not only for whooping cranes, but also for millions of other birds that use the same land for breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, and real-world siting controversies, such as an Alberta wind farm cancellation, illustrate how local factors shape outcomes for wildlife.

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Germany Renewable Energy Milestone marks renewables supplying 53% of power, with record onshore wind and peak solar; hydrogen-ready gas plants and grid upgrades are planned to balance variability amid Germany's coal phase-out.

Key Points

It marks renewables supplying 53% of Germany's power, driven by wind and solar records in the energy transition.

✅ 53% of generation and 52% of consumption in 2024

✅ Onshore wind hit record; June solar peaked

✅ 24 GW hydrogen-ready gas plants planned for grid balancing

For the first time, renewable energy sources have surpassed half of Germany's electricity production this year, as indicated by data from sustainable energy organizations.

Preliminary figures from the Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research alongside the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) show that the contribution of green energy has risen to 53%, echoing how renewable power surpassed fossil fuels in Europe recently, a significant increase from 44% in the previous year.

The year saw a record output from onshore wind energy, as investments in European wind power climbed, and an unprecedented peak in solar energy production in June, as reported by the organizations. Additionally, renewable sources constituted 52% of Germany's total power consumption, marking an increase of approximately five percentage points.

Germany, Europe's leading economy, heavily impacted by Russia's reduced natural gas supplies last year, as Europeans push back from Russian oil and gas across the region, has been leaning on renewable sources to bridge the energy gap. This shift comes even as the country temporarily ramped up coal usage last winter. Having phased out its nuclear power plants earlier this year, Germany aims for an 80% clean energy production by 2030.

In absolute numbers, Germany produced a record level of renewable energy this year, supported by a solar power boost during the energy crisis, approximately 267 billion kilowatt-hours, according to the associations. A decrease of 11% in overall energy production facilitated a reduced reliance on fossil fuels.

However, Europe's transition to more sustainable energy sources, particularly offshore wind, has encountered hurdles such as increased financing and component costs, even as neighbors like Ireland pursue an ambitious green electricity goal within four years. Germany continues to face challenges in expanding its renewable energy capacity, as noted by BDEW’s executive board chairwoman, Kerstin Andreae.

Andreae emphasizes that while energy companies are eager to invest in the transition, they often encounter delays due to protracted approval processes, bureaucratic complexities, and scarcity of land despite legislative improvements.

German government officials are close to finalizing a strategy this week for constructing multiple new gas-fired power plants, despite findings that solar plus battery storage can be cheaper than conventional power in Germany, a plan estimated to cost around 40 billion euros ($44 billion). This initiative is a critical part of Germany's strategy to mitigate potential power shortages that might result from the discontinuation of coal power, particularly given the variability in renewable energy sources.

A crucial meeting involving representatives from the Economy and Finance Ministries, along with the Chancellor's Office, is expected to occur late Tuesday. The purpose is to finalize this agreement, according to sources who requested anonymity due to restrictions on public disclosure.

The Economy Ministry, spearheading this project, confirmed that intensive discussions are ongoing, although no further details were disclosed.

Germany's plan involves utilizing approximately 24 gigawatts (GW) of energy from hydrogen, including emerging offshore green hydrogen options, and gas-fired power plants to compensate for the fluctuations in wind and solar power generation. However, the proposal has faced challenges, particularly regarding the allocation of public funds for these projects, with disagreements arising with the European Union's executive in Brussels.

Environmental groups have also expressed criticism of the strategy. They advocate for an expedited end to fossil fuel usage and remain skeptical about the energy sector's arguments favoring natural gas as a transitional fuel. Despite natural gas emitting less carbon dioxide than coal, environmentalists question its role in Germany's energy future.

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UK Transport Policy Overhaul signals bans on petrol and diesel cars, rail franchising reform, 15-minute cities, and active travel, tackling congestion, emissions, microplastics, urban sprawl, and public health with systemic, multimodal planning.

Key Points

A shift toward EVs, rail reform, and 15-minute cities to reduce emissions, congestion, and health risks.

✅ Phase-out of petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

✅ National rail franchising replaced with integrated operations

✅ Urban design: 15-minute cities, cycling, and active travel

Could it be true? That this government will bring all sales of petrol and diesel cars to an end by 2030, even as a 2035 EV mandate in Canada is derided by critics? That it will cancel all rail franchises and replace them with a system that might actually work? Could the UK, for the first time since the internal combustion engine was invented, really be contemplating a rational transport policy? Hold your horses.

Before deconstructing it, let’s mark this moment. Both announcements might be a decade or two overdue, but we should bank them as they’re essential steps towards a habitable nation.

We don’t yet know exactly what they mean, as the government has delayed its full transport announcement until later this autumn. But so far, nothing that surrounds these positive proposals makes any sense, and the so-called EV revolution often proves illusory in practice.

If the government has a vision for transport, it appears to be plug and play. We’ll keep our existing transport system, but change the kinds of vehicles and train companies that use it. But when you have a system in which structural failure is embedded, nothing short of structural change will significantly improve it.

A switch to electric cars will reduce pollution, though the benefits depend on the power mix; in Canada, Canada’s grid was 18% fossil-fuelled in 2019, for example. It won’t eliminate it, as a high proportion of the microscopic particles thrown into the air by cars, which are highly damaging to our health, arise from tyres grating on the surface of the road. Tyre wear is also by far the biggest source of microplastics pouring into our rivers and the sea. And when tyres, regardless of the engine that moves them, come to the end of their lives, we still have no means of properly recycling them.

Cars are an environmental hazard long before they leave the showroom. One estimate suggests that the carbon emissions produced in building each one equate to driving it for 150,000km. The rise in electric vehicle sales has created a rush for minerals such as lithium and copper, with devastating impacts on beautiful places. If the aim is greatly to reduce the number of vehicles on the road, and replace those that remain with battery-operated models, alongside EV battery recycling efforts, then they will be part of the solution. But if, as a forecast by the National Grid proposes, the current fleet is replaced by 35m electric cars, a University of Toronto study warns they are not a silver bullet, and we’ll simply create another environmental disaster.

Switching power sources does nothing to address the vast amount of space the car demands, which could otherwise be used for greens, parks, playgrounds and homes. It doesn’t stop cars from carving up community and turning streets into thoroughfares and outdoor life into a mortal hazard. Electric vehicles don’t solve congestion, or the extreme lack of physical activity that contributes to our poor health.

So far, the government seems to have no interest in systemic change. It still plans to spend £27bn on building even more roads, presumably to accommodate all those new electric cars. An analysis by Transport for Quality of Life suggests that this road-building will cancel out 80% of the carbon savings from a switch to electric over the next 12 years. But everywhere, even in the government’s feted garden villages and garden towns, new developments are being built around the car.

Rail policy is just as irrational, even though lessons from large electric bus fleets offer cleaner mass transit options. The construction of HS2, now projected to cost £106bn, has accelerated in the past few months, destroying precious wild places along the way, though its weak business case has almost certainly been destroyed by coronavirus.

If one thing changes permanently as a result of the pandemic, it is likely to be travel. Many people will never return to the office. The great potential of remote technologies, so long untapped, is at last being realised. Having experienced quieter cities with cleaner air, few people wish to return to the filthy past.

Like several of the world’s major cities, our capital is being remodelled in response, though why electric buses haven’t taken over remains a live question. The London mayor – recognising that, while fewer passengers can use public transport, a switch to cars would cause gridlock and lethal pollution – has set aside road space for cycling and walking. Greater Manchester hopes to build 1,800 miles of protected pedestrian and bicycle routes.

Cycling to work is described by some doctors as “the miracle pill”, massively reducing the chances of early death: if you want to save the NHS, get on your bike. But support from central government is weak and contradictory, and involves a fraction of the money it is spending on new roads. The major impediment to a cycling revolution is the danger of being hit by a car.

Even a switch to bicycles (including electric bikes and scooters) is only part of the answer. Fundamentally, this is not a vehicle problem but an urban design problem. Or rather, it is an urban design problem created by our favoured vehicle. Cars have made everything bigger and further away. Paris, under its mayor Anne Hidalgo, is seeking to reverse this trend, by creating a “15-minute city”, in which districts that have been treated by transport planners as mere portals to somewhere else become self-sufficient communities – each with their own shops, parks, schools and workplaces, within a 15-minute walk of everyone’s home.

This, I believe, is the radical shift that all towns and cities need. It would transform our sense of belonging, our community life, our health and our prospects of local employment, while greatly reducing pollution, noise and danger. Transport has always been about much more than transport. The way we travel helps to determine the way we live. And at the moment, locked in our metal boxes, we do not live well.

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China EV Market sees surging deliveries as Tesla, XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto race for market share, driven by tech-forward infotainment, autonomous features, and strong P7 and G3 demand, signaling intensifying competition and rapid growth.

Key Points

China EV Market features rapid EV sales growth led by Tesla, XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto amid tech-driven competition.

✅ XPeng deliveries up 617% YoY in June; 459% YTD growth

✅ Nio and Li Auto post triple-digit quarterly gains

✅ Tech focus: infotainment, ADAS; models P7, G3, G3i

XPeng President and Vice Chairman Brian Gu is quick to praise the Tesla brand and acknowledge the EV maker's "commanding" market share in China, and in key markets like the California EV market as well. 

But in the same breath, the executive at the upstart China-based EV rival said his company and peers are fast closing the competitive gap with Tesla.

"I think the Chinese players are catching up very quickly," Gu said on Yahoo Finance Live. "Our product as well as some of the other products that are being introduced by the leading players are very good, and have comparable specs — as well as better features I think compared to Tesla."

That point is not lost in the sales data from the main China EV players, and mirrors the global EV surge seen in recent years.

XPeng said this week deliveries in June surged 617% year-over-year to 6,565. So far this year, deliveries have skyrocketed 459% to 30,738 fueled by demand for XPeng's P7 sedan and G3 SUV, despite concerns about the biggest threats to the EV boom among investors. 

June deliveries at Nio rose 116% from a year ago to 8,083, even as mainstream adoption hurdles remain industry-wide. For the quarter ending June 30, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles marking a growth rate from a year ago of 112%. 

As for Li Auto, its June deliveries rose 321% from a year earlier to 7,713. Second quarter deliveries improved 166% year-over-year to 17,575.

Tesla reportedly sold 33,155 cars in China in June, up 122% year-over-year, even as its energy business outlook remains a focus for investors. 

"In the last few months, our growth has outpaced the industry as well as Tesla in China. But I think it's a long race because ultimately this market will not be dominated by one or two companies. It will probably be a number of players occupying probably large market share positions of 10% and above. That will likely be the trend, and we hope to be one of those top players," Gu explained. 

XPeng — which JPMorgan analysts estimate could grab 8% of China's electric car market by 2025 —currently has two models in the Chinese electric car market, as China's carmakers push into Europe too. They have gained notoriety in an increasingly crowded market for their tech-forward infotainment systems and autonomous technology.

The company's third model dubbed the G3i is expected to see deliveries begin in September, taking aim at smaller sedans such as the Toyota Camry. 

Shares of China's EV makers have cooled off this year despite their strong sales, and the U.S. EV market share dipped in early 2024 as well. XPeng shares are down 7% year-to-date, while Nio has shed 5%. Li Auto's stock is down 11% on the year. 

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Germany is extending its vehicle tax exemption for electric cars until 2035, a federal move aimed at boosting EV sales, supporting the auto industry, and advancing the country’s transition to cleaner, more sustainable transportation.

Why is Germany Exempting EVs from Vehicle Tax Until 2035?

Germany is exempting electric vehicles from vehicle tax until 2035 to boost EV adoption, support its auto industry, and meet national climate targets.

✅ Encourages consumers to buy zero-emission cars

✅ Protects jobs in the automotive sector

✅ Advances Germany’s clean energy transition

Germany’s federal government has confirmed plans to extend the country’s vehicle tax exemption for electric cars until 2035, as part of a renewed push to accelerate the nation’s e-mobility transition and support its struggling automotive industry. The move, announced by Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, comes just weeks before the existing exemption was set to expire.

“In order to get many more electric cars on the road in the coming years, we need to provide the right incentives now,” Klingbeil told the German Press Agency (DPA). “That is why we will continue to exempt electric cars from vehicle tax.”

Under the proposed law, the exemption will apply to new fully electric vehicles registered until December 31, 2030, with benefits lasting until the end of 2035. According to the Finance Ministry, the measure aims to “provide an incentive for the early purchase of a purely electric vehicle.” While popular among consumers and automakers, the plan is expected to cost the federal budget several hundred million euros in lost revenue.

Without the extension, the tax relief for new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) would have ended on January 1, 2026, creating uncertainty for automakers and potential buyers. The urgency to pass the new legislation reflects the government’s goal to maintain Germany’s momentum toward electrification, even as the age of electric cars accelerates amid economic headwinds and fierce international competition.

The exemption’s renewal was originally included in the coalition agreement between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). It follows two other measures from the government’s “investment booster” package—raising the maximum gross price for EV tax incentives to €100,000 and allowing special depreciation for electric vehicles. However, the vehicle tax measure was previously in jeopardy due to Germany’s tight fiscal situation. The Finance Ministry had cautioned that every proposal in the coalition deal was “subject to financing,” and a plan to end EV subsidies led to speculation that the EV tax break could be dropped altogether.

Klingbeil’s announcement coincides with an upcoming “automotive dialogue” summit at the Chancellery, hosted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The meeting will bring together representatives from federal ministries, regional governments, automakers advancing initiatives such as Daimler’s electrification plan across their portfolios, and trade unions to address both domestic and international challenges facing Germany’s car industry. Topics will include slowing EV sales growth in China, the ongoing tariff dispute with the United States, where EPA emissions rules are expected to boost EV sales, and strategies for strengthening Germany’s global competitiveness.

“We must now put together a strong package to lead the German automotive industry into the future and secure jobs,” Klingbeil said. “We want the best cars to continue to be built in Germany. Everyone knows that the future is electric.”

The government is also expected to revisit a proposed program to help low- and middle-income households access electric cars, addressing affordability concerns that persist across markets, modelled on France’s “social leasing” initiative. Though included in the coalition agreement, progress on that program has stalled, and few details have emerged since its announcement.

Germany’s latest tax policy move signals renewed confidence in its electric vehicle transition, despite budget constraints and a turbulent global market, as the 10-year EV outlook points to most cars being electric worldwide. Extending the exemption until 2035 sends a clear message to consumers and manufacturers alike: the country remains committed to building its clean transport future—one electric car at a time.

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